Cover Story

A Year Like No Other
From 'A' to 'J' this "rare" season had it all.

by Howard Shingle

"Climatology will eventually right itself,” Dr. William Gray, Ph. D., said earlier this year (see HP, Winter 2004, page 12). Gray, professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University (CSU), Fort Collins, CO, was speaking of how “lucky” states like Florida have been. “Because since 1995 the Atlantic basin has had 32 major storms and only three have come ashore,” he told Hurricane Protection. “That’s not going to keep on going.”

When you’re right, you’re right. This seems to be the year climatology rights itself. In all aspects, this was the season that was: Two months of relentless Atlantic basin tropical storm activity that brought four hurricanes—three of which were intense (Category 3 or higher)—and one tropical storm all making landfall in Florida.

The five named storms that have dramatically impacted Florida in August and September are unparalleled in terms of historical records going back 130 years, according to Gray and the CSU hurricane forecast team.

“It is not the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin that has been so unusual, but rather the rare combination of high hurricane activity and very favorable surrounding hurricane steering conditions that drove so many storms from the deep tropics across Florida in such a short time period,” said Gray. “This year has been a once-in-a-lifetime kind of year. Although Floridians should always be prepared for landfalling hurricanes, they should not expect what we have experienced this year to become the norm for future years.”

According to the CSU team’s monthly report issued October 1, the 2004 season has been distinguished by persistent tropical cyclone activity with at least one named storm in existence every day from August 25 to October 1. Additionally, September witnessed two very long-lived intense hurricanes: Frances with 7.25 intense hurricane days and Ivan with 10 intense hurricane days. Ivan’s 10 intense hurricane days are the most for any single tropical cyclone since 1900. September additionally had more intense hurricane days than any September since 1950.

According to the forecast team, four factors all came together in the tropical central Atlantic that made these two months so active with storm activity and landfalling hurricanes:

• Very warm sea surface temperatures
• Strong low-level convergence
• High low-level horizontal wind shear
• Low vertical wind shear

“It was very unusual to have these four required conditions come together so perfectly at one time, especially in a year where we also measured high sea level pressures in the tropical Atlantic and warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific—generally both strong indicators of reduced storm activity in the Atlantic basin,” said the team’s Philip Klotzbach.

AUGUST BRINGS ALEX
Once this year’s hurricane season got started, it continued almost non-stop. Tropical Storm Alex became a hurricane on August 3 and its center passed within about 10 miles of Cape Hatteras, NC, that afternoon with maximum winds near 100 mph (Category 2). It then accelerated northeastward across the western North Atlantic and reached its peak intensity of 120 mph (Category 3) on August 5 as it passed a few hundred miles south of the Canadian Maritimes.

Tropical Storm Bonnie became a tropical depression on August 3 before degenerating into a tropical wave. The wave redeveloped into a tropical storm on August 9. Bonnie eventually moved inland near Appalachicola, FL, on the state’s Panhandle as a minimal tropical storm.

Things were just getting started. Charley became a tropical depression on August 9 and passed just south of Jamaica on August 11 as a hurricane.

Charley weakened some over the lower straits of Florida. It then turned north-northeastward and accelerated toward the southwest coast of Florida intensifying rapidly just prior to landfall. Charley made landfall near Cayo Costa, FL, just north of Captiva during the evening of August 13 with maximum sustained winds estimated at 145 mph. Shortly thereafter the eyewall impacted Punta Gorda and neighboring Port Charlotte, FL, with devastating results.

Charley traversed the central Florida peninsula resulting in a swath of destruction across the state. The center passed near Kissimmee and Orlando early on August 14, by which time the maximum sustained winds had decreased to around 85 mph.

Charley was still of hurricane intensity when the center moved off the northeast coast of Florida near Daytona Beach. After moving into the Atlantic, Charley came ashore again near Cape Romain, SC, August 14 with highest winds of about 80 mph. The center then moved offshore and made another landfall at North Myrtle Beach with winds near 75 mph.

Charley was directly responsible for 10 deaths in the United States. An additional 16 U.S. deaths are indirectly attributable to it. The Property Claims Service reports insured damages of $6.76 billion dollars in Florida alone.

Frances formed from a tropical wave and became a tropical depression over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean on August 24. Moving west-northwest it became a hurricane two days later while located in the central tropical Atlantic.

Meanwhile, Gaston developed slowly. It became a tropical depression on August 27 about 140 miles southeast of Charleston, SC. Drifting erratically it continued to strengthen as it moved toward the coast. On August 29 Gaston moved inland just west of McClellanville, SC, with maximum winds of about 70 mph.

Gaston produced widespread flooding across South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia with rainfall totals exceeding 12 inches in some locations.

THEN CAME SEPTEMBER
On September 2, with winds of 145 mph (Category 4), Frances turned northwestward. That same day 2.5 million people along Florida’s east coast were asked to evacuate—the largest number in the state’s history. Frances weakened over the next two days to a Category 2 hurricane as its center reached the coast near Sewall’s Point, FL.

Frances continued west-northwestward across the central Florida Peninsula to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by September 6. It had weakened to a tropical storm when it made a final landfall near St. Marks, FL, later that day. It moved generally northward across the eastern United States, finally dissipating over southeastern Canada on September 9.

Frances is believed to be responsible for 23 deaths. It left a broad trail of damage through the Bahamas and Florida into the southeastern United States.

Ivan was a classic, long-lived Cape Verde hurricane that made two landfalls along the U.S. coast and reached Category 5 strength three times.

Ivan developed from a vigorous tropical wave that quickly strengthened and became a tropical depression on September 2, a tropical storm on the third, a hurricane early on the fifth and a major hurricane later that same day. Ivan reached rare Category 5 strength while over the central Caribbean Sea early on September 9 as it moved toward Jamaica.

From September 13 to 16 Ivan moved northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico and slowly weakened until it made its first U.S. landfall near Gulf Shores, AL, as a Category 3 hurricane early on the 16th. Some of Ivan’s worst damage, however, was to Pensacola, FL, and the Florida Panhandle. Its winds, estimated up to 130 mph, also spawned powerful tornadoes. The storm surge created waves up to 55 feet high. Across the Gulf Coast 5 million people were left without power.

After landfall Ivan gradually weakened over the next week while making a large clockwise loop. It moved northeastward over the southeastern U.S. and emerged off the Delmarva Peninsula on September 19 as an extratropical low.

Ivan’s remnant then moved southwestward just off the southeastern U.S. coast and passed over south Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico on September 21. Ivan became a tropical storm again on the 23rd and made its second landfall over extreme southwestern Louisiana on the 24th. The National Hurricane Center reported: “It sounds like the sequel to a very bad horror move, but it’s no joke. Ivan is back.” Ivan finally dissipated inland over east Texas later that day.

Tropical depression 10 originally formed off the coast of Africa on August 29. It became Hurricane Jeanne. As a tropical storm, Jeanne moved slowly over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on September 15 and then slowly over the Dominican Republic and Haiti on the 16th and 17th accompanied by torrential rains and winds to near hurricane force.

Jeanne became a hurricane on September 20 while about 400 miles east of Freeport, The Bahamas. The hurricane moved along a slow clockwise loop for several days and strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane.

Jeanne’s large eye made landfall on the east coast of Florida near Stuart as a Category 3. It is notable that Hurricane Frances made landfall near this same location just 20 days earlier. Jeanne weakened to a tropical storm over central and northwestern Florida while turning northward and weakened to a depression over Georgia. The storm recurved over the Mid-Atlantic coastal states on the 28th and 29th accompanied by heavy rain.

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