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"Climatology
will eventually right itself.” Prophetic words spoken by William
Gray, Colorado State University professor of atmospheric sciences, late
last year (see HP, Winter 2004, page 12). Gray and his team base their
seasonal outlooks on 100 years of past data. He’s been telling us
for some time now that we’re living in an era of increased cyclone
activity and the long-term trend anticipated more hurricanes. Still, no
one really expected things would right themselves all in one season.
The 2004 hurricane season serves to make two important points. One, that
Mother Nature is bigger than any of us. Most of us knew that already,
but perhaps we were lulled into complacency by the lack of serious landfalling
storms over the past several years. For many others, this was all new.
Since 1992 (Hurricane Andrew) the population of Florida has increase by
some 2.5 million people. That’s 2.5 million people with no memory
or history of the kind of devastation a major hurricane brings. That’s
all changed now.
The second important point is that we always need to be prepared. An elementary
lesson in probably sets up this situation: You flip a coin 99 times and
each time it comes up “heads.” What is the probably that the
next flip will also come up “heads”? Providing you’re using
a fair coin, the answer is 50/50. Each flip is an independent event and
the odds are reset—there’s as even a chance that the next flip
will be “heads” as “tails.” It doesn’t matter
what the outcome was for the last 99 flips.
This year, conditions were right and we saw the results. We’re told
not to expect what happened this year to become the norm for future seasons,
but that doesn’t rule out the possibility that next year could be
worse. Each season is an independent event and the odds will be based
on existing conditions at the time.
In May 2005, when things once again are stable and calm, we’ll be
looking ahead wondering what to expect. On May 5 and 6, Hurricane Protection
magazine will again host The World of Hurricane Protection Trade Show
and Conference. It will be held at the Doubletree Hotel at the Entrance
to Universal Orlando, Orlando, FL. This important event will bring together
all aspects of the industry so we can all be prepared for what Mother
Nature decides.
Howard Shingle - EDITOR
Kerri Caldwell - PUBLISHER
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