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Awareness, Preparation Key Factors
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Recognizing the damaging and potentially deadly effects of
the tropical storms and hurricanes that form in the Atlantic
Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico each year, President
George W. Bush signed a proclamation announcing May 18 to 24
as National Hurricane Awareness Week. At a news conference aimed
at increasing public awareness of the current hurricane season,
officials from NOAA and FEMA described the anticipated level
of hurricane activity this season, interagency coordination
efforts to help mitigate the consequences of a land falling
hurricane and the importance of taking steps to prepare families
and communities in advance.
In his proclamation, President Bush encouraged families along
coastlines to take steps that can save lives and minimize property
damage through planning and preparation.
“Being prepared for hurricane season is key in reducing
the loss of life and property,” said Under Secretary Mike
Brown of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and director
of FEMA. “Knowing what to do when a hurricane strikes takes
planning and preparation, and includes steps that range from
knowing your evacuation route to obtaining flood insurance.”
DHS and FEMA encourage families to take three basic steps in
order to be better prepared in the event of a disaster: assembling
a disaster supply kit, creating a family emergency plan and
understanding their risks. FEMA’s “Are You Ready?
A Guide for Citizen Preparedness,” available online offers
tips and information that can help families accomplish these
three tasks. |
Top hurricane experts
from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in
May said the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season will likely have above
normal levels of activity. The outlook calls for the potential of
11 to 15 tropical storms, with six to nine hurricanes and two to four
classified as major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Scale).
Officials from NOAA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
advised residents in Atlantic and Gulf Coast states to be prepared
throughout the season, which runs June 1 through November 30. In the
central Pacific, NOAA hurricane experts forecast two to three tropical
storms; this is slightly less than the long-term average of 4.5 tropical
storms per season.
James R. Mahoney, assistant secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere
and deputy NOAA administrator said, “This year the Atlantic hurricane
outlook calls for a 55 percent chance of an above normal season, a
35 percent chance of near normal, and only a 10 percent chance for
a below-normal season such as last year.”
“In the past two years alone, nine tropical storms and one hurricane
hit the United States causing 54 deaths and $6.3 billion in direct
economic damage. The toll can be even higher when people are not prepared,”
added Mahoney.
On average the Atlantic hurricane season brings 10 tropical storms,
with six reaching hurricane strength and two of those classified as
major. Above normal activity has been observed during six of the last
eight Atlantic hurricane seasons, reflecting an overall larger number
of tropical storms and hurricanes observed since 1995. In 2002, there
were 12 named storms, four of which became hurricanes (Gustav, Isidore,
Kyle and Lili).
| Hurricane Awareness Goal of Five-City
Tour |
When Hurricane Lili struck the Louisiana coast on October
3, 2002, with winds near 90 mph, causing $860 million in damage,
it was a shadow of its former self. Thirteen hours earlier,
it was generating winds of 145 mph. Had the storm’s intensity
not decreased, and Louisiana residents not acted to evacuate
low lying coastal areas, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) forecasters would have a different set of lessons to
share this season with residents along vulnerable stretches
of the East and Gulf coasts as they conducted a five-day, five-city
tour in May to bring hurricane awareness to the nation.
“Our objective is hurricane-awareness,” said National
Weather Service Director, retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Jack
Kelly. “Lessons learned in one locale have application
in other hurricane vulnerable areas. Working as a team with
our partners—federal, state and local emergency managers,
local officials and the media—we can substitute education
for experience.”
“We’re hoping to reach as many people as possible
to ensure they understand and respond to the hurricane threat,”
said Max Mayfield, National Hurricane Center director. “An
increase in the U.S. coastal population during the last several
decades means many more residents now live along a vulnerable
coastline. About 85 percent of them have never experienced the
direct effects of a major hurricane. Hurricane Lili could easily
have been a major storm at landfall (Category 3 or higher on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale).”
“Before the 2003 hurricane season begins, we want to ensure
that the experience or lessons learned in Louisiana and elsewhere
are known to others,” said Mayfield.
Mayfield was joined on the five-day, five-city swing through
the East Coast states by other hurricane experts and crewmembers
of NOAA’s “hurricane-hunter” aircraft (see HP,
Winter 2003, page 14). The awareness team met with local officials,
media and the public in Portland, ME; New Bedford, MA; Trenton,
NJ; Newport News, VA.; and Orlando, FL.
The destructive power of a hurricane’s storm surge—the
sea water pushed ashore by the storm’s winds—remains
the greatest potential threat, Mayfield notes, especially when
rapid intensification occurs, which is difficult to forecast.
Rain-induced flooding may prove as damaging and disruptive farther
inland according to a study by Edward Rappaport, National Hurricane
Center deputy director. “Over the last 30 years, inland
flooding was the most deadly hurricane component,” Rappaport
wrote. |
DICEY COMBINATION
The main factors contributing to the expected above-normal Atlantic
hurricane season are the existing multi-decadal patterns (lower
vertical wind shear, a favorable African Easterly Jet, weaker Trade
Winds and warmer than normal Atlantic Ocean temperatures) combined
with a 70 percent chance that La Niña conditions will develop
during the summer and further reduce the vertical wind shear in
the heart of the hurricane development region. La Niña is
characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial
Pacific, compared with El Niño’s unusually warm ocean
temperatures.
“This combination of factors creates a high likelihood of an
above-normal Atlantic hurricane season,” said Gerry Bell from
the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. “If La Niña conditions
develop as expected, then the activity could well be in the upper
portion of our predicted range. This is the first time since 1999
that conditions have the potential for producing a very active season.”
Bell also noted, “On average, two to three hurricanes hit the
United States in seasons such as this, but we cannot say at this
time whether a particular locality will be impacted by a hurricane.”
“The possibility of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season
is further reason to prepare now rather than waiting for the unknowns
of the last minute rush,” said Max Mayfield, director of the
NOAA National Hurricane Center in Miami (see HP, Winter 2003, page
10). “Planning and preparation are key to protecting the lives
and property of those residents living in areas vulnerable to hurricanes.”
TEAM EFFORT
The Atlantic Hurricane Outlook is a consolidated team effort consisting
of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Hurricane Research Division
and National Hurricane Center. NOAA meteorologists use a suite of
high-tech tools to forecast tropical storms and hurricanes. Forecasters
rely on information gathered by NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve
personnel who fly directly into the storms in hurricane hunter aircraft;
NOAA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Department
of Defense satellites; NEXRAD WSR-88D radars, and partners among
the international meteorological services.
The NOAA National Weather Service is the primary source for weather
data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories.
The NOAA National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather
and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect
lives and property and enhance the national economy.
NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety
through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related
events and providing environmental stewardship of the nation’s
coastal and marine resources. NOAA is part of the U.S. Department
of Commerce.
| The Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale |
In the United States, hurricanes are categorized based on
sustained wind speeds and the effects they cause.
1 Winds : 74-95 mph
No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored
mobile homes, shrubbery and trees. Also, some coastal flooding
and minor pier damage.
2 Winds : 96-110 mph
Some roofing material, door and window damage. Considerable
damage to vegetation, mobile homes, etc. Flooding damages piers,
and small craft in unprotected moorings may break their moorings.
3 Winds : 111-130 mph
Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings
with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Mobile homes are
destroyed. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures
with larger structures damaged by floating debris. Terrain may
be flooded well inland.
4 Winds : 131-155 mph
More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof
structure failure on small residences. Major erosion of beach
areas. Terrain may be flooded well inland.
5 Winds : 155+ mph
Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings.
Some complete building failures with small utility buildings
blown over or away. Flooding causes major damage to lower floors
of all structures near the shoreline. Massive evacuation of
residential areas may be required. |
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