|
Save 25% on our special introductory offer.
Subscribe today for only $14.99 per year.
|
|
|
 |
Accurate
Forecasts Part of NWS Mission
Forecasting a severe weather system such as a hurricane and issuing
warnings is a multi-step process that requires coordination in gathering
and analyzing detailed information. Above all, it must be done accurately
and quickly in order to be effective.
Part of the mission of the National Weather Service (NWS) Tropical
Prediction Center (TPC) is to save lives and protect property by issuing
watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous weather conditions
in the tropics. It is part of its responsibility to provide hurricane
information to emergency managers and decision makers.
The TPC comprises the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Tropical
Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Technical Support Branch
(TSB). During hurricane season, the latter two provide support to
the NHC.
The local NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in hurricane-prone areas
also are important participants in the forecast process. The NHC and
the local WFO have various roles in the forecast process that are
closely coordinated. Their activities are summarized below.
• OBSERVATION—Observations including
satellites, buoys, reconnaissance aircraft and radar are the basis
for all forecast and warning products issued by the NHC. Quality,
quantity and timeliness of remote sensing observations are critical
for accurate and timely forecasts and warnings.
• ANALYSIS—The various observations are
checked for quality, analyzed and put into a suite of computer models.
• MODEL GUIDANCE AND INTERPRETATION—The
computer models take in the observations and perform millions of calculations
to generate predictions of hurricane behavior and the general conditions
of the atmosphere in which the hurricane is embedded.
The model results are packaged as guidance for the appropriate national
centers and local offices and for evaluation and use in the NWS’s
forecast and warning process.
• COORDINATION WITHIN THE NWS—Forecasts
and warnings are coordinated between the national centers and local
forecast offices to provide consistency, which is critical during
severe weather episodes.
• PRODUCT GENERATION—Once the coordination
and collaboration process reaches group consensus, the issuing offices
generate forecast and warning products for release to the public.
• PRODUCT DISSEMINATION—Timely and reliable
dissemination of forecasts and warnings is critical to the protection
of life and property. These releases include weather outlooks, cyclone
forecasts and advisories, strike possibility forecasts, and high wind
watches and warnings.
• COORDINATION WITH CUSTOMERS—The NHC
and the local NWS forecast offices work with community leaders to
determine whether the forecast and warning products issued were useful
and how they can provide even better service in the future. |
|
|
|
|
