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| 2002 Hurricane Season
EL Niño reduces the number, strength of storms
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The 2002 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ended November
30, produced only four hurricanes due to a strengthening El Niño,
according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
hurricane specialists. However, twice the normal number of storm systems
(eight) affected the nation, bringing storm surge and severe weather
and rain to the nation including Hurricane Lili, the first land-falling
hurricane to strike the United States since the 1999 hurricane season.
“A strengthening El Niño suppressed the numbers of hurricanes
and weakened storms,” said retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Jack
Kelly, director of the NOAA National Weather Service. “Thanks
to El Niño’s influence, we experienced only four hurricanes—half
the number we’ve seen in typical seasons since 1995,”
Kelly added.
Overall in 2002, there were 12 named storms, of which four became
hurricanes. Hurricanes Lili and Isidore were classified as major (Category
3 or higher on the Saffir Simpson hurricane scale). Eight storms (Tropical
Storms Bertha, Edouard, Fay and Hanna; and Hurricanes Gustav, Isidore,
Kyle and Lili) affected the coastal United States.
Hurricane Lili was the only storm to make landfall while still a hurricane.
The other 2002 storms were: Tropical Storms Arthur, Cristobal, Dolly
and Josephine.
2003
NAMES
For the upcoming hurricane season, NOAA has
established the following list of names for tropical storms
it will track, which may become hurricanes: |
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fabian
Grace
Henri
Isabel
Juan
Kate |
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda |
Accurate Outlooks
Hurricane forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC),
Hurricane Research Division and National Hurricane Center correctly
forecast climate conditions, including the El Niño, would reduce
the overall hurricane activity last season. The forecast called for
seven to 10 tropical storms, of which four to six could develop into
hurricanes with one to three classified as major.
CPC Director Jim Laver noted they correctly predicted El Niño
would suppress the season’s “overall activity” (based
on a complex formula used by the scientists that combines the number
of tropical storms and their duration and intensity). He pointed out,
there were two more named tropical storms than the range of seven
to 10 predicted, but because several named storms were weak and of
short duration they contributed little to the scientific measure of
diminished “overall activity.”
“Gaining a better
understanding of the atmospheric conditions controlling seasonal hurricane
activity is at the heart of NOAA extended range hurricane outlooks,”
said Laver. “This is our fifth straight year of issuing accurate
outlooks for overall hurricane season activity. But future success
depends on more research into how global and regional climate patterns
affect Atlantic hurricane activity.”
Louisiana, the hardest hit area, was battered by four storms including
the powerful Hurricane Lili and Tropical Storm Isidore. The 2002 season’s
storms caused nine deaths in the United States and about $900 million
in damages. Max Mayfield, director of the NOAA National Hurricane
Center (NHC), said, “Four storm strikes on Louisiana remind
us of the need for preparedness during every hurricane season. It’s
not the number of storms that counts—it’s where they go.”
Mayfield added, “Tropical storm track forecast accuracy continued
to improve this year, due in part to accurate computer forecast models
from the NOAA Environmental Modeling Center. The landfall of Hurricane
Lili in Louisiana was well forecast nearly three days in advance,”
he said. “However, intensity forecasts did not capture Lili’s
rapid weakening (from a Category 4 to a Category 1 or 2) in the 12
hours before landfall. We are working through the U.S. Weather Research
Program to improve intensity forecasting,” Mayfield said.
Internet Saves Lives
Mayfield also noted the public relied heavily on Internet access for
lifesaving information from NOAA this season. “The explosive
use of the Internet to convey vital information to the public in near
real time has been astonishing,” he said.
“Between
August and September the NHC Web site recorded almost 500 million
hits. The peak day for the season was October 3 (Hurricane Lili) when
the site recorded 35.9 million hits—doubling the previous record
set in 1999 during Hurricane Floyd. We are saving lives thanks to
the Internet,” Mayfield noted. The NOAA High Performance Computing
and Communications Program manages the system. |
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