Some
people would have you believe that if a butterfly in Asia flapped
its wings at just the right time it could set off a chain of events
that would end with a storm on the other side of the globe. It speaks
to the global interconnectivity of life and ecosystems, but it’s
really pretty far-fetched.
That’s almost the same sense you get when looking at long-range
weather predictions. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA), the National Weather Service (NWS), the NWS Tropical Prediction
Center and the National Hurricane Center are all looking ahead to
see what kind of weather we can expect throughout the year. It’s
a complicated, multi-step process (see page 12). At least some of
these agencies concentrate specifically on the 2003 hurricane season,
and to do that they are looking at equatorial Pacific Ocean surface
temperatures.
What? Yes, well, in this case what’s happening in equatorial
Pacific Ocean waters really does set off a chain of events that
creates and directs a weather system we know as El Niño.
El Niño had a lot to do with why the 2002 season was so active
in terms of storms, but only produced four hurricanes (see page
13). “A strengthening El Niño suppressed the numbers
of hurricanes and weakened storms,” according to Jack Kelly,
director of the NOAA National Weather Service.
What can anyone say about the upcoming season? Not much for now;
it’s a bit too early. NOAA is saying it expects below normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation over the Southeast because
of El Niño and that this basic pattern is forecast to persist
into the spring.
There is one thing we can predict with absolute accuracy. We can
even tell you exactly when and where it will occur. It’s the
World of Hurricane Protection Expo 2003. It will be held May 16
and 17 at the Greater Fort Lauderdale/Broward County Convention
Center in Fort Lauderdale, FL. It will feature exhibits from leading
manufacturers and suppliers to the hurricane protection industry
and an expanded seminar program on building codes, product approval
and sales and marketing. The International Hurricane Protection
Association (IHPA) will hold its second annual golf outing the day
before the event begins as well as host a welcome reception and
hold its general meeting on the first day of the Expo.
As a matter of fact, you can plan on it—rain or shine.
Howard Shingle, EDITOR
Kerri Caldwell, ASSOCIATE EDITOR |
