CSU TEAM: 2005 TO CONTINUE TREND OF 'ENHANCED MAJOR HURRICANE ACTIVITY'

Following one of the most intense and destructive hurricane seasons on record, William Gray, Philip Klotzbach and the Colorado State University forecast team, Fort Collins, CO, predict above-average Atlantic basin hurricane activity again in 2005, but the team does not expect the large number of intense hurricanes or landfalling storms seen in 2004.

Gray and his team released its first extended-range forecast for the 2005 hurricane season in early December, and anticipate that 11 named storms will form in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and November 30. Six of the 11 storms will become hurricanes and of those six, three are expected to develop into intense, or major, hurricanes (Category 3, 4, 5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. Long-term averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

“We believe that 2005 will continue the trend of enhanced major hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin that we have seen over the past 10 years, and we expect this active hurricane era to span the next two or three decades,” Gray said. “Our in-depth analysis of current and projected global atmospheric and oceanic predictors through November indicates that the 2005 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be an active one with tropical cyclone activity about 115 percent of the average season.”

In comparison, 2004 witnessed tropical cyclone activity 233 percent of the average season. This is twice what the team is projecting for the 2005 season.

Gray and his team also predict a higher than average probability in 2005 for a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. and Caribbean coastlines. According to the report, there is a 69 percent chance of at least one major hurricane hitting somewhere along the U.S. coastline in 2005 (the long-term average probability is 52 percent). For the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, the probability of an intense hurricane making landfall is 49 percent (the long-term average is 31 percent). For the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, TX, the probability is 39 percent (the long-term average is 30 percent).

The hurricane team’s forecasts are based on the premise that global oceanic and atmospheric conditions—such as El Niño, sea surface temperatures and sea level pressure—that preceded active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons. Currently observed conditions include anomalously warm tropical and north Atlantic sea-surface temperatures as well as weak El Niño conditions. These factors are similar to conditions that occurred in the fall before the 1952, 1958, 1970 and 2003 seasons. The average of these four seasons had slightly above-average activity.

Gray does not attribute changes in recent and projected Atlantic hurricane activity to human-induced global warming.

Allstate Floridian Insurance Co. (AFIC), St. Petersburg, FL, announced in October 2004 its combined losses related to hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne, which struck portions of Florida during the third quarter, to be approximately $811 million after-tax ($1.25 billion pre-tax), net of recoveries from the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund (FHCF). Allstate Floridian includes Allstate Floridian Indemnity Co. Both are subsidiaries of Allstate Insurance Co., a wholly owned subsidiary of The Allstate Corp.

At the time of the announcement more than 145,000 claims had been received from Allstate Floridian policyholders for damage caused during last year’s unprecedented hurricane season (see HP, Fall 2004, page 16), according to Allstate Floridian Chairman RJ Young Jr. He added that more than 2,000 claims personnel were sent to the state to help customers.

FHCF is expected to reimburse Allstate Floridian for 90 percent of its qualifying personal lines property losses in excess of an estimated combined retention of $312 million per storm, up to an estimated maximum total for the season of $991 million. The estimated reimbursement to Allstate Floridian from FHCF is approximately $172 million.

Additionally, at the end of the third quarter management of Allstate Floridian sought from Allstate Insurance Co. capital to strengthen AFIC’s cash and financial position. As a result Allstate Insurance Co. has contributed $311 million in capital.

Actual losses may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statement for a variety of reasons, the company notes. Most significantly, the reporting and evaluation of these hurricane losses has been complicated by the fact that the storms occurred over a short period of time; that some communities were hit by more than one hurricane; and that property damage resulted from both flooding, which Allstate Floridian policies do not cover, and high winds, which Allstate Floridian policies typically do cover.

In addition, at the time of the announcement the extent of damage was particularly difficult to assess because much of the residential properties still were in the initial stages of repair and the estimate may not accurately reflect repair costs.

HOMES FOR OUR TROOPS ADDS THREE INDUSTRY PARTNERS

Three building product manufacturers have joined forces to support the efforts of Homes For Our Troops, a non-profit organization dedicated to building specially adapted homes for severely disabled veterans. The three companies, Simonton Windows®, Hi-Lite® Products and Style Solutions™, are the first building product companies in the country to serve as corporate partners for the organization.

Homes For Our Troops was started by John Gonsalves, a Massachusetts contractor, after he learned that Sgt. Peter Damon, Brockton, MA, returned from Iraq with life-altering injuries.

Led by a completely volunteer staff, Homes For Our Troops (www.homesforour troops.com) hopes to raise funds for and to build several homes for returning soldiers this year. As the homes are constructed, Simonton Windows, Style Solutions and Hy-Lite Products will donate vinyl-framed windows, urethane millwork and trim pieces and acrylic block windows, door inserts and wall partitions.

JAPAN HIT BY 10TH AND WORST TYPHOON OF THE SEASON

Japan, in October 2004, was hit with its deadliest typhoon in more than two decades, a destructive storm that killed at least 66 people and left 22 missing before veering out to sea north of Tokyo. The storm, called Tokage, or Lizard, was the country’s 10th of the year, reported The New York Times. Typhoons are hurricanes spawned in the Pacific Ocean
west of the International Dateline.

On Shikoku, the smallest of Japan’s four main islands, waves broke through a concrete breakwater and smashed coastal houses. Residents there reported seeing six-story high waves.

The biggest killers were landslides where entire hillsides suddenly gave way, crushing the houses below. Many victims were people who had not heeded warnings to go to shelters in safe areas. In this mountainous country, rural houses are often built under steep slopes. Heavy rains, up to two feet in some areas, saturated soil and loosened the slopes.

Moving slowly through southern and central Japan, Tokage, with a radius of up to 500 miles, was the biggest typhoon to hit Japan since the nation’s Meteorological Agency started to classify typhoons by size.

This year’s storm season has been lengthened by an unusually long period of warm weather in Pacific waters near Japan, weather specialists said in interviews.

Japan’s first nine typhoons this year killed 102 people, injured 1,991 and left 13 missing, according to the Fire and Disaster Management Agency. Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said damages for the first nine typhoons were estimated to be $6.72 billion.